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  • Count on It: Obamacare Enrollment Letdown to Come

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    The President held a celebration today at the White House to announce that 7.1 million people had signed up for insurance under Obamacare. As Jonathan Strong points out, it was a deeply partisan speech in which the President decried the partisanship of his opponents.

    The real problem with Obama’s announcement wasn’t the tone it was the false premise. Most of the people who he touted today had insurance before Obamacare came along. In fact we’ve had two surveys in recent weeks. The McKinsey survey found that just 27 percent of sign ups were previously uninsured. Yesterday the LA Times revealed details from an unpublished RAND corp. survey which found that “about one-third” of all sign-ups were previously uninsured.

    If we assume, best case, that 33 percent of the 7.1 million were previously uninsured, that works out to to about 2.3 million people. But as we all know by now, not everyone who signs up actually pays. The McKinsey survey found that previously uninsured people were far less likely to pay. In fact, just 53 percent followed through. To be generous, let’s assume they bring this up to 80 percent. That means the total number of enrolled but …read more